Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
